v* political report

crack political insight not on crack

bad and worse September 30, 2008

Filed under: Colorado, Udall, candidates, political report — indipol @ 10:44 am
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The Palin bounce (down the stairs) effect is now confirmed.  After seeing acts like this, Dems no long need to point out Palin’s total lack of qualification to be veep, because the R’s are doing it for them.  Palin is now an anchor on John McCain’s boat, no longer the helium helping him rise.  The McCain/Palin numbers will only drop from here, and the downtrend will be due both to McCain’s economy-managing fiasco as much as from Palin’s stunning unsuitability for the job.  The McCain campaign is clearly shielding her from further public interviews and contact with the press as they can’t afford more Couric-type interviews.

As far as the markets, the left/right divide on the $700B Paulson power grab has been fascinating to watch.  In Colorado the voting outcome was mixed.  Those on the left and right in safe seats voted Y (Degette, Perlmutter and Tancredo) and neither of these players are necessarily considered moderates.  The Nay votes were both from contested races (Udall and Musgrave) and from a D (Salazar) and R (Lamborn) in safe seats.   In other words, there’s no real pattern here.  The media has made much of the fact that rank-and-file R’s voted against the plan across the country (and they did by 2-1) just as 40% of rank-and-file D’s did, showing (supposedly) that conservatives and liberals both are in agreement on hating the compromise Paulson Power Grab, just for different reasons.

Are the reasons really that different?  R’s, D’s and moderates all around see the same things here: just two weeks ago Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, McCain, etc. were all spouting that the fundamentals of the economy were strong and that everything was roses.  Now they are asking for $700 billion in taxpayer money in a panic rush, telling us that if they don’t get it the economy is gonzo.  Voters are very rationally asking the WTF question while their reps are squirming around, ready to push the nuclear button after about two days of debate.  Again, it’s times like this I am thankful we have a slow Congress designed to make sure we don’t make panic decisions.

Finally, speaking of the Paulson Power Grab, if you thought the weekend compromise bill ameliorated the No Longer Invisible Hand provisions, think again

What attracted far less notice in the bill was a set of provisions that would have given Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson virtually unfettered authority to set up and run the new organization designed to stabilize the financial system — bypassing federal acquisition rules and competitive hiring procedures in the process.

The 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act would have allowed Paulson and his eventual successor to waive provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation “upon a determination that urgent and compelling circumstances make compliance with such provisions contrary to the public interest.”

“It’s unprecedented in American history and American government,” said Donald F. Kettl, a political analyst and professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “The blank check is blanker still given that we don’t know who will be signing dollar bills on Jan. 21.”

The department would have had to notify the House Financial Services and Oversight and Government Reform committees, as well as the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committees of any waiver within seven days. But the bill would not have granted the panels explicit power to block any such contract.

And it goes on and on….

 

finally, a post on the Colorado Senate race April 1, 2008

Filed under: Colorado Senate race, Schaffer, Udall — indipol @ 11:15 am
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Excuse my tardiness. Colorado is voting for a new Senator to replace Mr. Allard (who, seemingly deservedly, has accrued the reputation of having done absolutely nothing as a Senator) and I haven’t yet begun to cover the race.

The contenders are Mark Udall, currently CO’s CD-2 rep, and Bob Schaffer, currently an oil/gas exec. Udall’s known for knowing the names and voices of all 434 Reps he serves with in D.C.  Schaffer’s known for his bloody R Senate primary battle with Pete Coors in 2004. Yea, there is a lot more there, but those two tags sum up who these guys are: Udall comes across as a “nice guy” and a consensus builder, Schaffer comes off as a Rovian pit bull willing to get in the mud with his opponents.

On the issues, this article in yesterday’s Rocky Mountain News is probably the best place to start. Udall and Schaffer both served in the House at the same time, and the House being what it is (a byzantine empire ruled absolutely by the majority, with thousands of pointless message votes mixed in with a few legit ones) both have very long records. The RMN does a great summary of the opposing votes cast, finding that Udall and Schaffer are about as opposite as you’re ever going to find in a Senate race. Over four years the two cast over 2000 votes together and disagreed on half. Considering that half of those 2,036 votes were probably typical House busy work (eg. “H.Res. 2198: A Resolution Congratulating John Smith on becoming the 347th Postmaster of Schluberville, Illinois”), finding that Udall and Schaffer disagreed on the half of the votes that meant something is interesting.

To see who you’d support (I’m sure you already know), take the RMN’s quiz. (Warning: bad quiz. Udall’s name misspelled throughout. You have to manually count the times you agree with each candidate. No score given. blah blah blah)

To this point the polls have the race a close tie, with Udall holding a slight (very slight) lead in most. Polls are fine, but they don’t predict turnout or excitement well and turnout is what this race will come down to. In that regard Schaffer has big problems while Udall has a golden brick road laid down in front of him. In the Feb. 5th caucuses when both the D and R races were still very close, the statewide turnout was ~120,000 for the D’s vs. ~55,000 for the R’s. Obama drew close to 80,000 votes while McCain drew about 10,000 and lost to Romney by worse than 3-1. Bob Schaffer might be worried about a lot of things, but those numbers should be his #1 concern. The numbers shout clearly that Colorado Democrats are excited about November 2008 while Colorado Republicans are apathetic. I doubt the Bob Schaffer ticket is going to draw those apathetic R’s out when they stayed home for the Romney vs. McCain vs. Huckabee fight. Meanwhile, Mr. Udall gets to sit back and watch all those fired up Obama voters pull the D lever over and over again.