Assuming not much changes between today and tomorrow, here are the “predicted” outcomes in the key states by poll averager. I’ll update on Wednesday what the actual outcome was in that state. “538″ is fivethirtyeight.com, “RCP” is realclearpolitics.com, and “Pollster” is pollster.com. You’ll see each has its own number for every state. That’s because each does its own blend of averaging or other statistical massaging.
Here’s one guess from me: the traditionally red non-midwestern states will go closer for McCain than the poll averages suggest. My guess is that Obama will win Colorado by 2-3 and that McCain will win North Dakota by 5-8. The midwestern states are harder to see. McCain probably pulls out Ohio but Obama’s machine there may be way underappreciated, McCain probably pulls Indiana by 5-ish and Missouri will be too close to call into Wednesday morning. I have no idea how to handicap NC, but it is another state where Obama’s ground game may be underestimated and if it is, he could win by 2-3. Florida is setting itself up for another fiasco with how close it is. All in all I see the poll averages overpredicting for Obama by a tad, but in all he should still be able to get into the 300+ EV realm.
[UPDATE: prelim results by state below and will be updated with new results. I was wrong about CO and right about ND. I was right about Missouri and wrong about IN and OH, probably right about NC. The states that were furthest off in poll averages were North Dakota and Nevada, with Pennsylvania also a few points off.]
- Arizona
- 538: McCain +6.1
- RCP: McCain +3.5
- Pollster: McCain +5.2
- ELECTION: McCain +8.6 (99% in)
- Colorado
- 538: Obama +5.4
- RCP: Obama +5.5
- Pollster: Obama +6.9
- ELECTION: Obama +8.7 (100% in)
- Florida
- 538: Obama +1.0
- RCP: Obama +2.5
- Pollster: Obama +2.6
- ELECTION: Obama +2.4 (99% in)
- Georgia
- 538: McCain +5.2
- RCP: McCain +3.0
- Pollster: McCain +2.2
- ELECTION: McCain +5.5 (99% in)
- Indiana
- 538: McCain +1.8
- RCP: McCain +1.4
- Pollster: McCain +0.9
- ELECTION: Obama +0.8 (99% in)
- Missouri
- 538: McCain +0.8
- RCP: McCain +0.4
- Pollster: Obama +2.0
- ELECTION: TCTC, McCain up +0.21 (100% in)
- Montana
- 538: McCain +2.7
- RCP: McCain +3.8
- Pollster: McCain +1.9
- ELECTION: McCain +3.4 (99% in)
- North Carolina
- 538: Obama +0.2
- RCP: TIE
- Pollster: Obama +0.5
- Obama +0.30 (100% in)
- North Dakota
- 538: McCain +2.8
- RCP: [no average given]
- Pollster: Obama +3.1
- ELECTION: McCain +8.7 (100% in)
- New Hampshire
- 538: Obama +7.9
- RCP: Obama +10.6
- Pollster: Obama +11.9
- ELECTION: Obama +9.6 (100% in)
- Nevada
- 538: Obama +3.2
- RCP: Obama +6.2
- Pollster: Obama +6.2
- ELECTION: Obama +12.4 (100% in)
- Ohio
- 538: Obama +2.5
- RCP: Obama +4.3
- Pollster: Obama +5.6
- ELECTION: Obama +3.9 (100% in)
- Pennsylvania
- 538: Obama +6.9
- RCP: Obama +7.6
- Pollster: Obama +7.7
- ELECTION: Obama +10.3 (99% in)
- Virginia
- 538: Obama +4.7
- RCP: Obama +4.2
- Pollster: Obama +6.1
- ELECTION: Obama +4.5 (99% in)
