all chewy center, less crunchy outside…Last report had us bemoaning the loss of Gov. Richardson, wondering why Ron Paul is still around, bashing poll mathematics, stating (predicting? naw…) that Barack might sweep the south, and talking about perception vs. reality. This report? More of it.
In campaigns, the perception vs. reality management game is also wound up with expectation and trends. As I said last time, Mitt quickly moved out of South Carolina a few days before the R primary because he was going to come in fourth (he did), and he wanted to manage the ugly perception conferred by a 4th place finish in a state he spent money. But Mitt’s big loss there was tempered by his enormous win in Nevada (he was really the only R campaigning there, though), and suddenly it seems pretty clear that the last two dogs standing on the R side are Mitt and McCain. I still give richest odds to McCain, but Mitt’s Kerry-in-drag routine and billions in personal cash might actually pull it out. That’s what the D’s are hoping anyway, because Romney has about as much chance as Dukakis in the general.
All In The D Family More importantly on the perception-reality-expectations-trends front, though, is the Barack-Clinton battle. Here’s what you need to know about last Saturday’s South Carolina D primary: a week before the election, the Clintons - mostly Bill but a little Hillary, too - started getting nasty. Some observers even used the word “sleazy” and various synonyms thereof. The “Clinton Machine” was starting to do anything it could to win. Bill might have been the first black president (Toni Morrison’s words), but that voting segment was moving toward Barack.
At the same time as the Clinton Machine started rolling, for reasons coincidental and not, Barack’s lead seemed to start slipping somewhat quickly, and in the perception/trends game, that meant a lot. If Barack won SC but did so by only a few points, giving up a sizable lead in the process, it meant that the Clintons had the momentum back. What happened instead is that Barack turned a 10-12 point polls lead into a stunning 28-point win. (I’m not using “stunning” lightly.) He took 80% of the African American vote where just a month or two ago Hillary was ahead on that tally in the state. And he took about 25% of the white vote with Hillary and Edwards splitting the rest evenly.
A few things to take home: First, turn-out in SC was enormous, as it has been in all other previous states. People are revved about this election, and we don’t need the numbers to tell us that; I can hear it from everybody I talk to or overhear. (Even the R’s seem to be more excited about this election than previous ones, although not nearly to the level that the D’s are. That alone tells us how tough it’s going to be for the R’s in November, but the party preference among undecided/independents is also strongly in favor of the D’s right now.) Second, momentum is clearly to Barack. Trends are toward Barack, endorsements continue to fall to Barack, and the only thing blocking his roll to SuperDuperTuesday (Feb 5th; it used to be Super Tuesday but a bunch more states are voting that day this year than in years past) is Hillary’s inertia.
I hate to be so bearish on Hillary and bullish on Barack at the expense of Ms. Clinton, but there is no denying the steamroller than Barack is pushing. Just a week ago Hillary was still holding a 20-point national lead, including leads in a lot of the SuperDuperTuesday states that Barack has not campaigned in yet. As of yesterday a repeat of that poll has the lead down to 10 points. The trend for the past couple of months has seemed to be Hillary holding big leads in states where neither have campaigned, with Obama gaining on or overtaking her in states that he campaigns in. The biggest question, the biggest pivot point now is this: does Obama have enough time to close? Clinton has the inertia of starting with a huge lead, Barack has the insurgent’s momentum. If there was time to campaign fully in all SuperDuper states before Feb 5th I would bet oodles on Barack for a crushing win, but there isn’t time. The question is, can he do it anyway?
Pressure You can see Hillary feeling the pressure, and nowhere was it more apparent to me than in her suddenly talking about wanting to count the delegates from Michigan and Florida. If you haven’t been following closely, Michigan and Florida Dems are voting in primaries (Jan 15th for MI and today [Jan 29th] for FL) but their delegates aren’t going to count. Those states are being punished by the DNC for moving their primaries up without permission. Because of ballot logistics, MI this meant Hillary was the only candidate on the MI ballot (well, I’m not counting the Clevelander, Dodd or Crazy Gravel as candidates) and she won the state by getting 55% of the vote. (But wait a sec! Only 55% when her competition was Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel? Yea, the other 40% voted “Uncommitted.”) Everybody has known for months that MI and FL will not count, but suddenly Hillary is going down to FL anyway to campaign, and talking very loudly about allowing the MI and FL delegates to count. Curious? Maybe. Panic? Maybe.
Twilight Speaking of Florida, did I forget to mention Rudy? Yea, I did, didn’t I? Let’s put it this way: just like Rudy, I lived in NY on Sept. 11, 2001. And I lived through his oft-ridiculous, sometimes brilliant mayorality before that. And I had the same opinion that every other person living through those times in NY has had about his presidential candidacy: at some not-so-distant point voters will actually learn about Rudy, and his candidacy will be over in short order. Well, after Rudy comes in behind everybody in today’s R FL primary, it will be. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who divorced his second or third wife in a press conference before he told her. (I could go on and on….) As you’ve probably seen, Rudy pinned all his hopes on missing every primary before FL, then cruising in FL and on to the White House. Every political strategist alive told him he was crazy, but considering his limitations as a candidate, it was really his only path.
Endorsements In the last report I also mulled endorsements. I warned Obama that Kerry’s endorsement might be a blessing or a curse. Well how now to parse Barack’s latest huge endorsement package? In a bit of a political jaw-dropper, John F. Kennedy’s daughter Caroline came out strong for Obama in the NY Times, then convinced her uncle Ed to endorse Barack, too. This despite lots of phone calls from Bill to Ed, pleading for Ed’s endorsement of Hillary. Reportedly (actually, I think he came out and said it but I can’t find a quote in quotes), Ed was starting to get a bad taste in his mouth from Bill’s Obama smearing, and that pushed him finally over to Barack.
The Kennedy endorsement might or might not be good for Barack. It might help with the party establishment and rock-solid D voters. But it might hurt with the independents that Barack has really pulled over into his camp and who will be much more susceptible to the Republican talk-radio war on Senator Kennedy. After Hillary, Senator Kennedy is the right’s biggest hatefest, and it makes me wonder: will truly middle-ground I voters now take a second look at Barack’s rising star, thinking, ‘Hey, maybe this kid is too liberal for me?’
In the last report I said endorsements are probably overrated, with the possible exception of newspaper endorsements. I should have clarified, newspaper endorsements with the exception of the New York Times. The NYT official endorsed Clinton and McCain a few days ago. As far as I can tell, those endorsements were met with enormous yawns. Much more importantly on McCain’s side, Florida Governor Crist came out strong for McCain and has been actively campaigning for him. At this point (Tuesday morning) today’s R race seems very close, so I wonder if Crist’s help will give McCain a push. “Several polls” seem to indicate that it will (according to CQ’s polltracker). What I still fail to understand is why Romney is winning the “very conservative voter” polling in Florida. Do voters really think a Massachusetts R governor with a very centrist record is suddenly a conservative lion?
Polling In response to the last report, somebody asked: [Question: Why do pollsters ask "is america ready to elect an african american or female president"? Rather than asking "are you ready to elect..." Is a person's perception of their neighbor's readiness a better indicator than asking someone directly?] The answer is, different pollsters ask different questions, and some do ask the question directly. But yes, this gets into the perception question. It is a long-standing polling tradition to ask - to paraphrase - ‘How do you think your neighbors are feeling about this? How do you think people are going to vote?’ Asking a question that way gives an “electability” answer. Asking “Who do you think a majority of your citizens are going to vote for?” is a different way of asking, “Who is most electable?” I think it’s lame, and unfortunately I think the public can be misled about the temperature of the nation by listening to the crowd instead of their own leanings, but what do I know?
Elsewhere Beyond the D and R primaries, I got this out of yesterday’s CQ Midday Update: [The Des Moines Register reports that Republicans appear to be taking a pass at challenging Rep. Leonard L. Boswell, D-Iowa, this year. Observers say it's a sign of how low the GOP has sunk even since election losses in 2006 - Boswell had faced stiff competition in each of his past three re-election bids. "We'll be lucky with anything we get this year," said Steve Roberts, a Republican National Committee member from Des Moines. "I don't think there are a lot of people with high expectations this year. It's a long road back for us this time."] That’s why the D’s are in such a good position in November and why McCain is the only hope for the R’s (he’s the only one without severe R baggage). Then again, the R’s aren’t having any trouble finding competition for other races.
Today Florida might answer a lot of questions today for the R’s, or it might not. If McCain and Mitt essentially tie, then it’s going to get ugly ugly ugly up until SuperDuperTuesday. R’s like to eat their own, so it’ll be fun to watch. If McCain wins big all hell is going to break loose as far as negative campaigning from Mitt, but McCain will have the standing to back it down. If Mitt wins by 3 or more, I have no idea what’s going to happen, but I’d still give odds to McCain. Expect Rudy to drop out tonight as he comes in third or fourth. And if you’re a betting man or woman, it might be fun to put money on Huckabee’s drop date, which should come any time within the next two weeks. Ron Paul’s probably in it until May.
Colorado Finally, for you Colorado Dems, Barack is now even with Clinton here: http://coloradopols.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5203 And don’t forget that Colorado is a caucus state, not a primary, so you actually have to show up and sit in a room and talk politics with people for a few hours if you want your vote to count. Curiously, the same poll gives Romney a 20 point lead over McCain for the R’s.
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